How much reliance should we place on the 2051 projections?

The government says the data shows the case for change is compelling.

However an analyst says the opposite.

Frank Newman, an investment analyst and accountant, and the author of numerous books on investment matters, says:

“So, how much reliance should we place on the 2051 projections?

That leads to the obvious question: Is it possible to project numbers 30 years into the future with any degree of accuracy?  Most people with experience in financial forecasting will say no. Projecting that far into the future is more theoretical than practical.

Realistically, 10 years is the maximum one would forecast and even then typically the protected scenario bears little correlation to what actually eventuates. One has only to look at past Long Term Council Community Plans which forecast a council’s finances 10-years ahead to see how little correlation they have to what eventuates. “

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